Demand for Storage and Import of Natural Gas in China until 2060: Simulation with a Dynamic Model

China has been reforming its domestic natural gas market in recent years, while construction of storage systems is lagging behind. As accounts for an increasing proportion due to the goal carbon neutrality, large-scale appears be necessary satisfy needs peak shaving and national strategic security. Additionally, production cannot meet consumption demands, imports will play a significant role on supply side. This paper developed system dynamics (SD) model applied it simulate behaviors estimated China’s capabilities import demands over next 40 years. To achieve make great progress energy intensity improve structure, which have impact consumption. Thus, alternative scenarios were defined discuss changes with different goals environmental constraints. The results show that under low medium price scenarios, demand continue grow but difficult neutrality. Under high scenario, rapidly reach approximately 2040, after renewable more important help At time, 205.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) 635.4 bcm, accounting 72.8% total We also identified contradiction between capability, infrastructure planning. There gap 28.1–69.3 bcm planned capacity simulated by 2030, facilities may partly strand assets. Finally, we provided some policy recommendations constructing management operation systems.